Optimization
Hamed Azizi Ganzagh; Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Zahra Mila Elmi; Amir Mansour Tehranchian
Abstract
Inflation forecasting is one of the most important issues for the economies of countries, As the existing literature suggests, hybrid models will bring better prediction accuracy due to attention to both linear and non-linear dimensions. Furthermore, the use of ARDL model can include lags of other variables ...
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Inflation forecasting is one of the most important issues for the economies of countries, As the existing literature suggests, hybrid models will bring better prediction accuracy due to attention to both linear and non-linear dimensions. Furthermore, the use of ARDL model can include lags of other variables in tandem with having linear features. It should also be noted that LSTM models have a forgetting gate due to their non-linear estimation characteristics, and they can incorporate data with very distant lags in the model. Therefore, the combination of these two models can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. Accordingly, attempts have been made in the current study to compare ARDL, NARX, LSTM and ARDL-D-LSTM models with one another and to introduce a suitable model for predicting Iran's monthly inflation rate in the short-term and long-term time horizon. After estimating the monthly inflation rate of Iran in the period of 4/21/2005 to 8/22/2018 and testing the model on the data for the period of 9/22/2018 to 12/21/ 2020 it was found that the NARX model and the ARDL-D-LSTM hybrid model performed well respectively for short-term time horizon and the long-term horizon according to the RMSE criteria.
Mohammad Reza Hosseini; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 101-122
Abstract
The index of economic well-being (IEWB) covering consumption, wealth, income distribution and economic security is a suitable composite index measuring welfare, growth and development at both partial as well as comprehensive levels .In this study the composite index has been proposed for the first time ...
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The index of economic well-being (IEWB) covering consumption, wealth, income distribution and economic security is a suitable composite index measuring welfare, growth and development at both partial as well as comprehensive levels .In this study the composite index has been proposed for the first time in Iran and the welfare trend has also been measured for the available data period 1368-1382. In order to aggregate variables and welfare dimensions we have normalized data using the first year of the first development plan (1368) as the base year. In addition, to estimate the trend of total economic welfare index we have used a uniform weight (0.25) table for each of the four dimensions. The results show that the economic security and consumption were respectively the most important dimensions of economic welfare in Iran .Also, comparing the absolute as well as the relative changes in per capita income and IEWB we found that using per capita income as an index will overestimate the level of economic welfare in Iran.
Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Zahra (Mila) Elmi; Arash Hadizade
Volume 9, Issue 32 , October 2007, , Pages 31-53
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of some macroeconomic variables on house price index. We apply a macroeconomic model with micro foundations that uses household income, stock price index, building service price index, housing completions, supply of money, and inflation to explain ...
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of some macroeconomic variables on house price index. We apply a macroeconomic model with micro foundations that uses household income, stock price index, building service price index, housing completions, supply of money, and inflation to explain the changes in house price index. We use the ARDL and the ECM model with the seasonal data for the period 1995-2006 to estimate the speed of convergence to equilibrium. Our findings indicate that the macroeconomic variables can explain the changes in the house price index in Iran, and the sign of estimated coefficients confirm the hypothesis.
